王洪涛,邹斌

• 1:宁德师范学院信息与机电工程学院
• 2:上海大学机电工程与自动化学院

摘要(Abstract)：

为解决高比例可再生能源接入电力系统后，现有的关键线路辨识方法难以考虑源荷不确定情况下的关键线路辨识的问题，提出了新的关键线路辨识方法。首先，以贝叶斯网络BN(Bayesian network)为基础，建立源荷概率模型。然后，以线路概率潮流介数为指标，利用概率最优潮流的计算结果，对电源-负荷节点对之间的功率传输进行顺流潮流追踪，计算每条线路的概率潮流介数，以概率潮流介数为指标辨识关键线路。最后，以IEEE39节点系统为算例，考虑源荷的不确定性和相关性，对关键线路进行辨识。仿真结果表明，所提方法较为全面地考虑了源荷不确定性和相关性，得到的关键线路集与参考标准的关键线路集相同，验证了所提方法的有效性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 关键线路辨识;源荷不确定性;源荷相关性;概率潮流介数;贝叶斯网络

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 福建省自然科学基金资助项目（2019J01845）

作者(Author): 王洪涛,邹斌

DOI: 10.19635/j.cnki.csu-epsa.000901

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