周昊,刘俊勇,刘友波,向月,戴松灵,李婷

• 1:四川大学电气信息学院
• 2:四川电力经济技术研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

电动汽车的规模预测是充电服务网络和配电网协同发展的重要基础和依据。利用系统动力学思想分析影响电动汽车发展的各类因素及其相关关系,建立了电动汽车规模推演的系统动力学模型,仿真得到电动汽车未来的发展趋势,并通过构建不同的场景分析电动汽车在不同条件下的发展状况。仿真结果发现:电动汽车购买率呈现S型增长曲线,电动汽车增长将要进入快速增长周期;前期变化主要受政府政策影响,后期技术发展和基础设施建设将成为影响电动汽车发展的重要因素。

关键词(KeyWords)： 电动汽车;系统动力学;因素分析;推演

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51377111)

作者(Author): 周昊,刘俊勇,刘友波,向月,戴松灵,李婷

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